The First Domino in the CAA Falls

The offseason of the college basketball season is usually marked by three big things: the coaching carousel, the NBA Draft, and lately, conference realignment.

The CAA, who has produced two Final Four teams since 2006, George Mason and VCU, has been recognized as one of the top mid major conferences in the country. Yet even this illustrious distinction has not been enough to spare the conference from rumors and actual realignment issues.

It all started with rumors of Mason and VCU jumping ship to the A-10. It has been well established that, especially after the departure of Temple to the Big East, that the A-10 has been considering inviting various mid majors to join them. The three teams who have been mentioned the most for this expansion have been Butler, George Mason, and VCU.

The rumors particularly picked up about a month ago, when word came out from CBS that both Mason and VCU were in talks with A-10 officials about a possible move. Those rumors have been denied by both the A-10, CAA, Mason, and VCU.

Yet, the general theory is, where there is smoke, there is fire, so this issue will not be resolved fully until the summer is over most likely.

Meanwhile, a move has been made by another team in the CAA. Earlier in the week, it was made official that Georgia State, the CAA's youngest member, would be joining the Sun Belt Conference as of July 1st, 2013.

What I find particularly intriguing about this move is that rumors of this move were being refuted as soon as a week before it was made official, furthering the thought that what the conferences say has to be taken with a grain of salt.

So now, the CAA is looking at an 11 team conference in 2013. The question now becomes, will the CAA bring in one team to fill a slot, go the route of the A-10 and try to bring in multiple teams, or will Georgia State's departure spark more teams leaving the conference.

Honestly, I think that it all depends on what move Mason and VCU make. If these two teams leave for the A-10, then the conference is in deep trouble, having lost three teams, including their two most publicly known. If the two teams stay, then the CAA still looks like a big step up for a strong mid major team in an average league, and the conference will go on as strong as ever.

Unfortunately for the CAA, it looks like nothing will be known until after July 1st. Neither VCU nor Mason seems to be willing to make a move before the fiscal year ends and they get a huge check for the last five years of NCAA Tournament performances, featuring Final Four money.

This is going to be an interesting situation going forward, as it's rare to see the fate of a conference decided by one move. We'll just have to wait and see what happens in this battle for mid major superiority.